The Future Extreme Temperature Under RCP8.5 Reduces the Yields of Major Crops in Northern Peninsular Southeast Asia

Abstract

This study explores the impact of rising of near-future temperatures on crop yields, particularly rice and maize, in northern Thailand between 2020 and 2029. The potential for high temperatures in northern Thailand between 2020 and 2029 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario indicates that Thailand experienced hot trends between 2020 and 2029, as measured by yearly Annual maximum value of daily maximum temp (TXx), Annual minimum value of daily maximum temp (TXn) , Annual minimum value of daily minimum temp (TNn), and Annual maximum value of daily minimum temp (TNx). Northern Thailand had the most dramatic changes in TXn and TNn. Furthermore, TXn levels were found to be significantly higher in northern Thailand. Number of days when TX 90th percentile (TX90p) became increasingly rare in northern Thailand. The TN90p was dropping in northern Thailand, whereas the Warm Spell Duration Index index (WSDI) was growing. Additionally, the (Cold Spell Duration Index) CSDI continues to decline. This indicates that the heat persistence index was increasing in northern Thailand. Temperature rises are the most likely to have a detrimental impact on agricultural production, and climate models can predict regional temperature changes with more precision than precipitation. Throughout the planting season (June – December), average yearly temperatures in rice and maize growing areas have climbed by 0.5 – 0.6 °C. The impact estimates for maize are generally negative, at −10 ± 4.6% per °C, and −8 ± 3.5% per °C for rice.