Abstract
Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
Highlights
Considerable effort has been invested in conserving biodiversity over recent decades
We investigate the potential impacts of projected climate and land-use changes on the breeding distributions of 64 non-passerine wetland bird species in Europe, based on distribution data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas
Ac (ii) using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs), and (iii) comparing predicted changes from the SDMs to the actual observed changes from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas (EBBA2, Keller et al Species occurrences for 64 non-passerine wetland bird species that breed in Europe were obtained from the first Atlas of European Breeding Birds (Hagemeijer and Blair 1997), hereafter “EBBA1”, which was compiled and published by the European Bird Census
Summary
Considerable effort has been invested in conserving biodiversity over recent decades. Biodiversity losses continue at an unprecedented rate, as reflected by ongoing declines in population size and range contractions for many species worldwide (Tittensor et al 2014, Pievani 2014). The observed changes in the distribution of many species during recent decades have been primarily attributed to the ongoing rapid climate change, and to largescale habitat loss Historical data clearly show that species may respond to climate and habitat changes by adjusting their spatial distributions (Brommer et al 2012, Pavón-Jordán et al 2019, Parmesan et al 1999, Thomas and Lennon 1999, Littlefield et al2017). Bird species that are ecologically dependent on wetlands are commonly used as indicators of wetland ecosystem health (Williamson et al 2013) and provide valuable ecosystem services such as food supply, pest control, seed dispersal, and cultural services such as recreation and hunting (Hamilton et al 1994, Lehikoinen et al 2017, Teo 2001, Green and Elmberg 2014)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
