Abstract
International and UK fuel cycle scenario analyses performed to date have focused on nuclear plants producing electricity without considering in detail the other potential drivers for nuclear power, such as industrial process heat. Part of the reason behind the restricted applications of nuclear power is because the assumptions behind the future scenario are not fully captured, for example how big are demands from different sectors? Here we present a means to fully capture the potential opportunities for nuclear power using Sankey diagrams and then, using this information, consider for the first time in the UK the fuel cycle implications of decarbonising industrial heat demand in the year 2050 with nuclear power using the ORION fuel cycle code to study attributes related to spent fuel, uranium demand and decay heat from the spent fuel. We show that even in high industrial energy demand scenarios, the sensitivity of spent fuel masses and decay heat to the types of reactor deployed is relatively small compared to the greater fuel cycle demands from large-scale deployment of nuclear plants for electricity production. However, the sensitivity of spent fuel volumes depends heavily on the extent to which High Temperature Reactor and Light Water Reactor systems operating on a once-through cycle are deployed.
Highlights
Much of the energy scenario modelling, and accompanying fuel cycle assessments, performed to date have focused solely on nuclear power plants being used for electricity supply [1,2,3]
Radiotoxicity has not been investigated since it is generally not limiting from a repository design perspective, this is because radiotoxicity in the long-term is dominated by plutonium and the minor actinides [39,40]
These actinide species exhibit low mobility under repository conditions [40,41,42], whereas the decay heat from the material considered waste may be more limiting depending on geological conditions, governing repository size
Summary
Much of the energy scenario modelling, and accompanying fuel cycle assessments, performed to date ( in the UK) have focused solely on nuclear power plants being used for electricity supply [1,2,3]. The scenarios consider varying amounts of demand for electricity from nuclear; for example, in the UK, fuel cycles between 16 GWe and 75 GWe have been investigated [1,4]. This analysis suffers from a key drawback: It is not always clear how a particular scenario has been derived, for example what is driving the increase demand in electricity and the deployment of nuclear power plants? The answer to this point is important, since it may be the case that nuclear power is not being considered for applications it could readily fulfil, for example is growth in industrial heat demand and the assumed electrification of industry driving electricity demand? The scenarios firstly assume no direct application of nuclear heat but the energy demand from different sectors in the UK (including transport, heating and lighting & appliances), with a high proportion of industrial heat
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