The fragility of results and bias in empirical research: an exploratory exposition

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe results of empirical work in economics and finance are typically sensitive, inter alia, to model specification, sample period, variable definitions and estimation methods. If the underlying issue attracts bias of some sort, the reporting of the results tends to be selective, intended to confirm prior beliefs, which may be ideologically-driven, or to make the paper more publishable. In this paper the fragility (variability and sensitivity) of empirical results is demonstrated and the process whereby it enables research selection bias is described. For this purpose, several research areas are considered, including the determinants of economic growth, the effect of gender on risk aversion, the determinants of capital structure, the J-curve effect, the effect of corruption on foreign direct investment, and the Kuznets curve.