The Foundation, Development and Future of the Omani Rentier State: From the Dhofar War to Vision 2040

Abstract

Modern Oman’s continuation is uncertain after the death of its founder Qaboos bin Said (1970-2020). Amid isolationism and civil war, Qaboos drew on oil wealth to unite the state and found a modern welfare nation on the typical rentier model. At the same time, 1995 saw Qaboos announce Vision 2020 (later 2040) to diversify away from oil dependence. This article explores the development of Oman as a rentier state contrasted with formal diversification plans to argue that Qaboos’ main focus was modern state building and economic diversification away from oil was likely understood to be a goal beyond his lifetime, passing to his cousin Haitham bin Tariq, who was indeed, tasked with this as the responsible Minister before becoming Sultan on Qaboos’ death. The article also puts economic diversification within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and how this pandemic may be drawn on for ‘war-time’ discourse that bolsters Haitham bin Tariq’s tentative legitimacy.