Abstract
Previous studies have focused on which stocks are winners or losers but have paid little attention to the formation process of past returns. This paper develops a model showing that past returns and the formation process of past returns have a joint effect on future expected returns. The empirical evidence shows that the zero-investment portfolio, including stocks with specific patterns of historical prices, improves monthly momentum profit by 59%. Overall, the process of how one stock becomes a winner or loser can further distinguish the best and worst stocks in a group of winners or losers.
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