The formation and transmission of upstream and downstream sectoral carbon emission responsibilities: Evidence from China

Abstract

Abstract The design of scientific and reasonable policies for emission reduction depends on an understanding of the formation and transmission of upstream and downstream carbon emission (UCE and DCE) responsibilities at the sectoral level along production chains. By extending subsystem analysis from UCEs to DCEs, this study investigates the formation mechanism of sectoral emission responsibilities in both directions. The approach is illustrated through the case of Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2012. Moreover, multi-temporal structural path analysis is applied to identify the crucial UCE and DCE transmission paths and the perturbation factors for path regulation priorities. The results show that: (1) sectoral emission responsibilities exhibit significant disparities from the entire production chain perspective, and Mining (MS2), Electricity, Steam, Gas and Water Production and Supply (MS18), and Other Services (MS24) are the primary emission sources. (2) The spillover effect plays the dominant role in the formation of UCEs and DCEs. (3) Setting quantitative direct carbon intensity reduction targets for Electricity, Steam, Gas and Water Production and Supply (MS18) and optimizing consumption structures of emission-intensive intermediate products can significantly reduce the spillover effects of UCEs and DCEs. (4) Emission regulation priorities for crucial transmission paths depend on the path types, path emission transfers, and path economic multipliers.