The Forest Extent in 2015 and the Drivers of Forest Change Between 2000 and 2015 in Papua New Guinea

Abstract

Obtaining high-quality information on forest and land use is essential to analysis of climate change, sustainable forest and land use planning. Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) forest and land cover/land use has been well documented using different methods, land classifications and forest definitions. These studies have delivered significant results indicating a general decline in the forest extent, with the drivers of land use changes attributed to demographic and economic development. This study is a component of the larger National Forest Inventory for PNG within which we sought to stratify and quantify forest and land use change by applying a systematic point-based sampling approach utilizing Open Foris—Collect Earth and freely available satellite images. A total of 25,279 sample points was assessed to determine the PNG’s forest extent and the forest change drivers based on the national forest definition. Analysis revealed that in 2015, about 78% of the country was covered with 12 forest types, and more than 23% of the total forest area has been degraded through anthropogenic activities. Analysis also revealed that between 2000 and 2015, about 0.66% of the total forest area was deforested, and subsistence agriculture was the main driver (0.45%), followed by palm oil planting (0.23%). During the same period, about 6.6% of the total forest area was degraded, and commercial logging was the main cause (6.1%). Apart from Global Forest Watch, this study established more forest than previously estimated in earlier studies. This is due to the fundamental differences in the purposes and methodologies used.