The foresight SAGA: Predicting future numbers of students

Abstract

Recent attempts at predicting the numbers of studentsin Britain likely to seek places in higher education in the future are briefly described and their methods of prediction analysed. The author argues that future numbers cannot be reliably predicted since in recent years there has been no identifiable regular pattern from which a sound prediction might be made. Ways of improving the figures are suggested but the author proposes that these figures be used in the context of flexible planning, i.e., plans that incorporate the possibility of substantial modification at any stage.