Abstract
The national demand for primary energy has experienced an average increase of almost 5% in recent years, driven by the growth in electricity consumption, which grew by an average of 6% per year between 2003 and 2017, by virtue of the almost generalization of rural electrification and the dynamism of our economy and especially the policy of major works in infrastructure, industry, agriculture, tourism, and social housing. In fact, forecasting the demand for electrical energy remains a controversial issue in the development of the electricity grid and energy management. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is applied to model electrical energy consumption for the annual period from 1971 to 2020. The same data are also used to predicting for 2021–2030 in order to verify the adequacy of the model and to provide information on the state of energy demand in Morocco in the future. The main results indicate an upward trend in electrical energy consumption by the end of 2030, with electricity consumption expected to be in the range of 2039639.09–53589.00 GWh per year.
Highlights
Energy is vital to the sustainable development of any nation, be it social, economic, or environmental
Econometric forecasting methods, in the context of energy demand forecasting, can be described as the science and art of specifying, estimating, testing, and evaluating models of economic processes that determine fuel demand [2]. e majority of models operate on the basis of a macroanalysis of consumption at the level of a country or region, without distinguishing between urban and rural areas. e context is that of industrialized or emerging countries or an urban context with existing energy access [1], and the models are based on existing datasets on consumption and its potential explanatory variables. e analysis is based on existing consumption with immediate needs a priori satisfied [17]
3.1. e Box and Jenkins Approach. e Box and Jenkins approach (1976) is a methodology for the systematic study of time series based on their characteristics to determine, in the family of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, the most suitable to represent the phenomenon studied [14]. e only problem with ARIMA modeling is mathematically difficult and requires a thorough knowledge of the method
Summary
Energy is vital to the sustainable development of any nation, be it social, economic, or environmental. Since energy consumption has always increased because of rapid population growth, in the third world and emerging countries, this expansion is expected to continue in the near future, the world population from 7.5 billion today to about 9.5 billion over the 30 years [3]. Such increase in population would produce a dramatic impact on energy demand, making at least double by 2030.
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