The Forecasting Model of the Impact of Shopping Centres in Urban Areas on the Generation of Traffic Demand

Abstract

The increase in traffic caused by new development affects the change in traffic conditions on the surrounding roads, and shopping centres are significant traffic generators. The development of local travel generation rates and their characteristics for individual land uses from the aspect of traffic demand is a reliable way to plan traffic in order to come up with preventive solutions to traffic problems, that is, prevention of possible negative consequences on traffic conditions in the street network occurring due to the construction of shopping centres. One of the main aims of this paper is to develop a model for objective assessment of the generated traffic demand for significant changes in land use, such as the construction of shopping centres in medium-sized towns. All these would be steps in the right direction for the promotion of reliable traffic planning and adoption of TIA for every new development before a decision regarding the change in land purpose has been made. This kind of process still has not been established systematically in either Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of Serbia, or in surrounding countries. This paper focuses on the formulation of a model for determining the volume of traffic generated by shopping centres in medium-sized towns in two countries of the Southeast Europe region. The survey was conducted in eight different locations (cities) where there are shopping centres with common facilities. The analysis showed that the number of visitors and vehicles attracted by the shopping centre zone can be determined by a model based on a linear regression analysis. The analysis included exploring several different factors of trip generation in shopping centres, including the relationship between trip generation and combinations of several independent variables. The verification of the model was conducted in real conditions of the traffic flow generated by a shopping centre which was not the analysis subject when forming the forecasting model. In this way, the validity of the proposed model is credibly assessed. The developed model can be applied in the procedures of planning the construction of shopping centres in medium-sized cities in the Republic of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and wider, in the region of Southeast Europe, in order to estimate the volume of generated traffic demand, that is, its impact on the conditions of traffic on the surrounding traffic network.