The Forecasting export prospects based on sustainable growth – Empirical evidence in Vietnam

Abstract

In recent years, import and export activities have changed drastically, indicating that this role is important for Vietnam's economic growth and development. The purpose of this paper to assess the export development goals according to the sustainable growth model of Vietnam. Data was collected from the website of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam in the period from 1995 to 2020, using the ARIMA model, analytical results with Eviews and SAS software show that Vietnam's goods exports have achieved a sustainable growth target with a stable growth percentage of the export goods with high-tech and technical content, and the export proportion of these sectors is now up to 87% of the total. Specifically in the manufacturing industry, with top export value, accounting for 44%, machinery, transport vehicles and spare parts with export value are second, equivalent to 24%, export value of processed other goods ranked, 13%, the processed goods classified according to the fourth largest export value of 6%. The forecast results also show that this structure continues to be stable and increased with the forecast figure of up to 91.9% by 2030, especially the export of machinery, means of transport and spare parts by 2030 will increase to 33%.