Abstract

 
 
 This paper contribute to the forecasted total budget revenues in Uzbekistan. It is aim to investigate long run and short run relationship between number of registered company, total number of taxpayers and forecasted total budget revenues from 1998 and 2017. More specifically, this dynamic relationship using bounds testing approach to co integration and the ARDL model. The main empirical findings indicate the existence of directional relationship between the number of registered company and forecasted total budget revenues in short run and long run. This mean that increase the number of registered company leads to go up forecasted total budget revenues. However, a unidirectional relationship between the total number of taxpayers and forecasted total budget revenues are confirmed in the long run and short run.
 
 
Highlights
The current tax policy in Uzbekistan is becoming one of the key factors affecting the pace of economic growth
The "Autoregressive Distributed Lag model", which we offer, will enable you to identify a shorter and longer-term outlook that will allow you to apply many factors affecting tax revenue
The total number of taxpayer’s coefficient of regression found out long run and short run that has a positive impact and statistically significant 5 percent level. This mean that an increase in the total number of taxpayer’s by 1 percent and go down in the forecasted total budget revenues by 2,28 percent over the long run and short run
Summary
The current tax policy in Uzbekistan is becoming one of the key factors affecting the pace of economic growth. The first studies was examined the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach by Pesaran (1997), and he continued in those studied by Pesaran et al (2001) They tested the persistence of the relationship energy, employment and industrial production that found out the long run relationship those chosen variables. The finding of the result the bound test indicated that there was a stable long run relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Mohammad Abul Kashem (2017) examined the relationship long and short run series, empirical cointregration as well as Granger Causality test between carbon emissions, energy consumption and industrial growth. This research tested the long run and short run cointregration in selected variable forecasting taxes with ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model.
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