The forecast of the methane concentration changes for the different time periods on the Arctic island Bely

Abstract

The paper predicts the changes in the concentration of one of the main greenhouse gases - methane (CH4). The forecast was made for three different time periods, each of which had its own characteristics of the dynamics of changes in the concentration of CH4. Data for the study were collected while monitoring the content of the main greenhouse gases in the surface layer of atmospheric air in the Russian Arctic (Bely Island, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug). We compared the results of the models prediction based on the two types of artificial neural networks: Elman and nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input (NARX). NARX showed a high prediction accuracy for all studied time intervals.