Abstract
Sea surface temperature (SST) over the western North Pacific (WNP) exhibits strong decadal to multidecadal variability and in this region, warm waters fuel the tropical cyclones (TCs). Observational records show pronounced decadal variations in WNP TC metrics during 1950–2018. Statistical analysis of the various TC metrics suggests that the annual average intensity of WNP TCs is closely linked to the AMO (r = 0.86 at decadal timescales, p < 0.05). Observations and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations show that the decadal WNP SST variations regarded as the primary driver of TC intensity, are remotely controlled by the AMO. Corresponding to the WNP SST warming, the local SLP gets lower and the tropospheric air becomes warmer and moister, enhancing atmospheric instability and the generation of convective available potential energy. These favorable changes in the background environment provide more “fuel” to the development of deep convection and intensify the WNP TCs. The footprints of AMO in WNP SST and atmospheric states through trans-basin interaction eventually exert a significant impact on the TC intensity over the WNP region.
Highlights
Tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the most destructive natural disasters
We find a significant decadal variability of TC activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) region, based on the observational data set from 1950 to 2018
Statistical analysis of the various TC metrics suggests that the average intensity of WNP TCs is strongly connected with the AMO (r 0.86 at decadal timescales, p < 0.05), showing a much closer relationship than other TC statistics
Summary
Tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the most destructive natural disasters. Almost 30% of all TCs over the globe take place in the western North Pacific (WNP; 100°–180°E, 0°–40°N). As the surface temperature has warmed notably, observed changes in the WNP TC activity during the recent decades are metric dependent, showing a strengthening trend in the intensity but decreasing trends in the frequency and duration (Emanuel, 2005; Liu and Chan, 2013). WNP TC activity shows pronounced interannual variability and most studies have identified ENSO as an important contributor to the interannual variations (Chan 1985; Camargo and Sobel 2005; Wang et al, 2014; Liu and Chen 2018; Patricola et al, 2018). AMO and Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity
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