The Fluidity of Chechnya’s Conflicts: From Nationalism to Jihad to Supra-Regional Jihad

Abstract

The study of the Chechen wars that shaped the North Caucasus following the Soviet Union’s demise is much ploughed terrain. While the first Chechen war (1994–1996) received a secular narrative, seeking national self-determination, the second war (1999–2009) propelled a religious narrative. One critical question remains unanswered. Challenging established interpretations, a third wave of Russo-Chechen violence emerged, manifested in increasing numbers of Chechens fighting Russian forces and their allies in the ongoing Syrian conflict. The latest wave begs the question how a secular independence movement evolved in such a way as to develop first regional and subsequently supra-regional religious overtones? Examining the temporal phases of Chechnya’s conflicts as a continuum, rather than piecemeal, identifies an underlying structure that explains the development of the conflicts’ key issues and changes. Fundamentally, within-case process tracing demonstrates that horizontal inequalities () between Russians and Chechens, i.e. unequal access to economic assets as well as political, social and cultural participation explain the violence (). Accounting for the ubiquity of and the conflict’s political environment, I expand the chain of causality that turns into by so-called power ideas (), i.e. ideas about how political power should be organised, such as nationalism or Islamism. Departing from the causal role of , I examine the role of in transforming secular nationalism into regional and supra-regional jihad. The mechanism of transition has thus far confounded strategists and planners. My study will establish a clear historical narrative that illuminates this previously elusive metamorphosis and present a sharper, clearly defined picture of the causes of a conflict transiting multiple stages and just as many interpretations. Ultimately it offers potential to yield schematic findings with conceivably significant implications for other contemporary conflicts.