Abstract
SUMMARYThe paper contains empirical tests of the monetary approach to exchange rate determination for the price of Italian banknotes in terms of Swiss francs quoted in Zürich. The exchange rate was chosen because it is less influenced by government intervention than the official rate. In addition, there is little reverse causation between the chosen exchange rate and its explanatory variables due to the small size of the market analyzed. The tests indicate that the exchange rate analyzed adjusted in only two months to relative rates of monetary expansion between Italy and Switzerland. This fast adjustment is not implausible considering that the market involves to a large extent illegal capital outflows from Italy. Since data on monetary aggregates are published on average with a lag of about two months, he tests do not exclude that the market considered was efficient in a semi‐strong form. The price of Italian banknotes in Zürich was also significantly affected by relative inflationary expectations and by seasonal factors connected with the inflow of foreign tourists to Italy.
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