Abstract
This paper uses the DCC-GARCH and Value at Risk (VaR) model to analyze the fluctuation, linkage, and price volatility risk among coffee price series in the period of 2004 - 2020. In terms of the fluctuation, the study points out, the volatility of Vietnamese coffee price and the price of Robusta coffee in two markets were affected by two ARCH terms and GARCH terms at 1 percent level. Meanwhile, the coffee price of Brazil and Colombia is only impacted by the ARCH term. The linkage between Brazil and Colombia is the biggest. The average coefficient linkage among Vietnam with two main competitors is relatively small. In terms of price volatility risk, the price volatility risk of Vietnamese coffee is the smallest and the biggest risk is belonging to Brazilian coffee price. The results obtained would be a valuable reference for stakeholders, policymakers, coffee processing and exporting enterprises, and coffee farmers to clearly understand the fluctuation and linkage among coffee export price series, and thereby have appropriate and effective solutions and strategies in price volatility risk management to sustainable development.
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