The fluctuation analysis of public opinion energy: Modeling social group opinion base on the event of social networks

Abstract

In the period of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), millions of people participate in the discussion of COVID-19 on the Internet, which can easily trigger public opinion and threaten social stability. To find out the relationship between the intergroup variability in numbers and perspectives and the dynamic change of the number of infected people, this paper defines the public focus level to quantify the level of attention of people to the information related to an epidemic situation, and the POF model based on the level of epidemic focus is proposed. In this paper, we have carried out simulation experiments in small-world networks and scale-free networks, respectively, to explore the relationship between the model parameters and the spreading range and speed of each population. Furthermore, the paper also analyzed all the original microblog posts published by the People's Daily from January 14, 2020, to February 12, 2020, and compared the data simulated by the POF model with the real data from the People's Daily, the simulation data and the real data can be well fitted to prove the reliability of the model.