The First Three Months of COVID-19: Epidemiological Evidence for Two SARS-CoV-2 Strains Spreading and Implications for Prevention Strategies.

Abstract

About a month after the COVID-19 epidemic peaked in Mainland China and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) migrated to Europe and then the USA, the epidemiological data began to provide important insights into the risks associated with the disease and the effectiveness of intervention strategies such as travel restrictions and lockdowns (“social distancing”). Respiratory diseases, including the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic, remain only about two months in any given population, although peak incidence and lethality can vary. The epidemiological data suggested that at least two strains of SARS-CoV-2 had evolved during the first months of the epidemic while the virus migrated from Mainland China to Europe. South Korea (SK), Iran, Italy (IT), and Italy’s neighbors were then hit by the more dangerous “SKII” variant. While the first epidemic in continental Asia was about to end and in Europe about to level off, the more recent epidemic in the younger US population was still increasing, albeit not exponentially anymore.The same models that help us to understand the epidemic also help us to choose prevention strategies. The containment of high-risk people, such as the elderly with comorbidities, and reducing disease severity, by either vaccination, reduction of comorbidities (seen as risk factors already in Italy), or early treatment of complications, are the best strategies against a respiratory virus disease (RVD). Lockdowns can be effective during the month following the peak incidence of infections when the exponential increase of cases ends (the window of opportunity). From the standard susceptible-infectious-resistant (SIR) model used, containing low-risk people too early, instead, merely prolongs the time the virus needs to circulate until the incidence is high enough to reach “herd immunity.” Containing low-risk people too late is also not helpful, unless to prevent a rebound if containment started too early.