Abstract
Abstract Determinants of the decision to stay at school or to enter the youth labour market are analysed. It is shown that the commonly used participation rates for both youth labour market and secondary school analysis are flawed. Consequently secondary school retention rates are estimated as aggregate measures of that first decision. Australian data for 1968 to 1983 are utilized. A wide variety of factors appear to affect retention rates including inter-state institutional differences, youth unemployment rates, demographic cohort structures, credentialism at grade 10 and the availability of apprenticeships, but wages only to a much lesser degree. Nevertheless, strong unexplained time trends appear, as do very strong differences between males and females and different years of age. Major implications of the complex relationships found are that simple marginal changes in policy variables, such as scholarship levels, are unlikely to be effective.
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