The first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes as applied to the seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas

Abstract

The seismic source regions are identified on the basis of spatial and temporal distributions of shocks (1900–1989), recurrence relations and the tectonic architecture of the Indian subcontinent and adjoining areas. The probable occurrence of the maximum magnitude earthquake is estimated using the theory of extreme values of Gumbel. The parameters of the first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes and their uncertainty values are computed for the seven identified seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas. The third-type distribution curve is preferable to the first type in all the regions, as revealed by the χ2 test. The results of the third asymptotic distribution indicate the upper bound to earthquake magnitude w is equal to 8.94 ± 0.21 for Assam, 8.56 ± 0.29 for Bihar-Nepal, 8.43 ± 0.10 for Kangra, 8.97 ± 0.27 for Hindukush, 7.61 ± 0.24 for Pakistan-Cutch, 7.34 ± 0.12 for Koyna and 8.98 ± 0.27 for Andaman Sea seismic source regions. The predicted most probable largest earthquake magnitude is computed for return periods of 10, 20, 50, 75 and 100 yr in each source region.