Abstract
Several studies have reported the relationship of deforestation with increased incidence of infectious diseases, mainly due to the deregulation caused in these environments. The purpose of this study was to answer the following questions: a) is increased loss of vegetation related to dengue cases in the Brazilian Cerrado? b) how do different regions of the tropical savanna biome present distinct patterns for total dengue cases and vegetation loss? c) what is the projection of a future scenario of deforestation and an increased number of dengue cases in 2030? Thus, this study aimed to assess the relationship between loss of native vegetation in the Cerrado and dengue infection. In this paper, we quantify the entire deforested area and dengue infection cases from 2001 to 2019. For data analyses, we used Poisson generalized linear model, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, non-parametric statistics, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict loss of vegetation and fever dengue cases for the next decade. Cluster analysis revealed the formation of four clusters among the states. Our results showed significant increases in loss of native vegetation in all states, with the exception of Piauí. As for dengue cases, there were increases in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso. Based on projections for 2030, Minas Gerais will register about 4,000 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, São Paulo 750 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and Mato Grosso 500 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants. To reduce these projections, Brazil will need to control deforestation and implement public health, environmental and social policies, requiring a joint effort from all spheres of society.
Highlights
Infectious diseases in the world were overshadowed in 2020 by Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), decreed on March 11, 2020, by the World Health Organization—WHO [1] as a pandemic
In 2019, for example, the WHO reported that 219 million people were affected by malaria and 10 million people were affected by tuberculosis there were around the world, [2] and, to a lesser extent, but just as worrying, the cases of dengue in 2020 reached approximately 2.7 million people
Modeling of the dengue fever cases as function of loss of vegetation and year The Durbin-Watson test showed that the autocorrelation of the residuals of the Poisson generalized linear model (PGLM) adjusted between dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants as function of deforestation and year for each state of the Brazilian Cerrado are equal to zero for all states of the Brazilian Cerrado (Table 1)
Summary
Infectious diseases in the world were overshadowed in 2020 by Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), decreed on March 11, 2020, by the World Health Organization—WHO [1] as a pandemic. Some diseases have been neglected worldwide by the media and governments, have high contagion rates and lethality, being a global problem for public health. The number of cases has increased in recent years. 36.5% were concentrated in Brazil, and more than half of these cases were recorded in the Cerrado biome [3]. Dengue is a benign or severe acute febrile infectious pathology transmitted by the bite of infected mosquitoes (females), and is considered a major public health problem due to the increased number of cases and high lethality rate. From 2008 to 2019, dengue accounted for 6,429 deaths and currently presents a disease burden of 66,420 confirmed cases in the year 2021 in the Cerrado biome [3]
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