The Fear Avoidance Model predicts short-term pain and disability following lumbar disc surgery.

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ObjectiveTo examine the prognostic value of the Fear Avoidance Model (FAM) variables when predicting pain intensity and disability 10-weeks postoperative following lumbar disc surgery.MethodsWe recruited patients scheduled for first-time, single level lumbar disc surgery. The following aspects of the FAM were assessed at preoperative baseline and after 10 postoperative weeks: numeric pain rating scale (0–10) for leg and back pain intensity separately, Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Fear Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire (FABQ), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Oswestry Disability Questionnaire (ODI), and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Multivariate regression models were used to examine the best combination of baseline FAM variables to predict the 10-week leg pain, back pain, and disability. All multivariate models were adjusted for age and sex.Results60 patients (30 females, mean [SD] age = 40.4 [9.5]) were enrolled. All FAM measures correlated with disability at baseline. Adding FAM variables to each of the stepwise multiple linear regression model explained a significant amount of the variance in disability (Adj. R2 = .38, p < .001), leg pain intensity (Adj. R2 = .25, p = .001), and back pain intensity Adj. R2 = .32, p < .001 at 10-weeks). After adjusting for age and gender, BDI and FABQ-work subscale were the only significant predictors added to each of the prediction models for the 10-week clinical outcome (leg pain, back pain, and ODI).ConclusionBDI and FABQ-work subscale variables are associated with baseline pain intensity and disability and predict short-term pain and disability following lumbar disc surgery. Measuring these variables in patients being considered for lumbar disc surgery may improve patient outcome.