The Favourite Son’s Favourites: Ronald Reagan and the Presidential Home-State Effect in the 1982 Midterm Elections

Abstract

This chapter explores whether a president’s home state is less punishing to the president’s party in midterm elections. Nearly every newly elected president in the post-war era increased the popular vote in his home state, often to a greater extent than the shift to his party in the national popular vote. This chapter finds that this effect holds into midterm elections, with presidents often losing relatively less share of the vote in their home states. Using the case study of California in the 1982 midterm elections, the chapter uncovers some of the reasons for the phenomenon. President Ronald Reagan, former California governor, appeared with reasonable frequency on the campaign trail. All four top-tier statewide candidates – Republicans and Democrats – attempted to cleave to President Ronald Reagan’s positive reputation in California. This chapter finds that a ‘favourite-son’ president can provide other resources, especially fundraising prowess, in expensive home state contests. Presidents can sprinkle ‘star dust’ on their state’s electorate, but they cannot cause voters to overlook important background factors, such as the condition of the economy, entirely.