The fate of vegetation carbon stocks of India: Insights from a remote-sensed evaluation of carbon use efficiency

Abstract

Vegetation carbon use efficiency (CUE), defined as the ratio of the net primary productivity (NPP) to gross primary productivity (GPP), is a critical metric for assessing the extent of sequestration of atmospheric carbon by vegetation into biomass. Evaluating CUE is essential for policymakers to devise carbon sequestration policies and also identify hotspots of carbon storage loss. Indian ecosystems face variable weather conditions across the year. However, the roles of weather variability, spatial patterns, and temporal dynamics are poorly understood, as much as the resilience to hydroclimatic perturbations that may influence CUE in Indian terrestrial ecosystems, particularly at sub-annual scales. The lack of sub-annual NPP datasets hinders remote sensing-based sub-annual CUE assessments. However, this study derived an 8-day scale NPP dataset through an empirical formulation on moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) products. This study assessed CUE dynamics for India across its six homogeneous meteorological regions (HMRs) including the major biomes of each HMR, encompassing croplands, forests, and grasslands, through a fine-scale remote sensing approach for 2000–2021. The results show pronounced variability of CUE across spatiotemporal scales governed by the water availability and temperature interplay, with hilly 0.59±0.01 and northwestern 0.33±0.02 regions exhibiting the highest and lowest CUE on an annual scale. Distinct patterns have been observed among the biomes, depending on the HMRs dictated by the land management practices of the regions. Similar pronounced CUE variability has been observed on seasonal scales. The study also derived sustainability maps of carbon stocks for India from the trend-persistence interplay of CUE, revealing alarming concerns across most HMRs, with peninsular India exhibiting a persistent decrease in CUE for 82% of its cropland area. A widespread loss of resilience of carbon stocks was observed, primarily caused by increased precipitation and warming under meteorological drivers, along with aridity induced by soil and atmospheric conditions. Overall, this study highlights the critical role of CUE in assessing the carbon sequestration potential of Indian ecosystems and the need for a better understanding of the factors that influence it to develop effective carbon sequestration policies.