Abstract
Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy‐forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate‐change on rocky‐shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate‐change induced range‐shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy‐forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold‐temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range‐limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate‐change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus – and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae – until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold‐temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate‐change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm‐temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed‐harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem.
Highlights
Anthropogenic climate change, occurring faster than changes in the past 65 million years (Diffenbaugh and Field 2013), defines an ecological turning point: numerous species extinctions and poleward range shifts disturb species interactions and ecosystem services on a global scale (Brierley and Kingsford 2009; Barnosky et al 2011)
In cold-temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south
The melting perennial Arctic ice cover will open up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species from the south (Boe et al 2009)
Summary
Anthropogenic climate change, occurring faster than changes in the past 65 million years (Diffenbaugh and Field 2013), defines an ecological turning point: numerous species extinctions and poleward range shifts disturb species interactions and ecosystem services on a global scale (Brierley and Kingsford 2009; Barnosky et al 2011). Html, real values): four surface air temperature derivatives (mean, minimum, maximum, and range), representing the aerial ‘weather’ impact on the intertidal, were compiled and described in Jueterbock et al (2013); the other 20 Bio-ORACLE variables, oceanographic data measured from the water column, in Tyberghein et al (2012). To identify the importance of seasonality in photoperiod for the distribution of F. distichus, we compiled two global rasters with the R packages ‘raster’ (Hijmans 2015) and ‘insol’ (Corripio 2014): (1) Summer solstice, representing the hours of daylight at midsummer (21 Jun); and (2) Winter solstice, representing the hours of daylight at the shortest day of the year (21 Dec)
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