Abstract
Land use changes by humans have eliminated more than half of the wetlands in Florida over the last 200 years, and additional losses are anticipated as a consequence of climate change and ongoing development activities that will accommodate a rapidly growing human population. Both spell danger for the biodiversity and ecosystem services in Florida, and data are needed to inform conservation priorities and actions concerning threatened or endangered wetland species. We modeled the projected distribution of an endangered epiphyte native to the forested wetlands in South Florida, Guzmania monostachia (Bromeliaceae), in response to changing climate and sea level conditions. We constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) under the present framework by using georeferenced occurrence points and projected them into the past and future under different scenarios. Our future climate-based ENMs predicted small losses in suitable habitat for G. monostachia in South Florida, with expansions into higher latitudes due to the warmer climate. In contrast, the models predicted a considerable, although non-detrimental, loss of suitable habitat due to rising sea levels. The combined results suggest that human activity is and will remain the largest threat to G. monostachia in Florida, and conservation efforts should focus on preserving existing habitats that will remain above sea level and explore possibilities for assisted migration.
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