The false consensus effect: A trigger of radicalization in locally unwanted land uses conflicts?

Abstract

We tackled conflicts over locally unwanted land use (LULU) focusing on the false consensus effect (FCE). Through a secondary analysis of data from a representative sample of residents in the district of Turin, Italy, where a high-speed railway (HSR) is to be sited (N = 1785), we tested whether the FCE mediated the relationship between perceived threat to the location and mobilization against the HSR. Participants tended to overestimate the number of people holding their same opinion. Among opponents of the HSR (n = 305), the tendency to be liable to the FCE was higher for those who perceived the project as a threat to the location. Moreover, the perception of an alleged consensus based on their own opinion mobilized them to defend their position. Our study suggests that standard approaches to LULU conflicts may benefit from the use of socio-cognitive variables. Strengths and limitations of the study are discussed.