The Fallacy of Composition: Prospective Mathematics Teachers’ Use of Logical Fallacies

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to address the lack of research on teachers’ knowledge of probability. As has been the case in prior research, we asked prospective mathematics teachers to determine which of the presented sequences of coin flips was least likely to occur. However, instead of using the traditional perspectives of heuristic and informal reasoning, we have utilized logical fallacies for our analysis of the results. From this new perspective, we determined that certain individuals’—those who provided normatively incorrect responses—utilized the fallacy of composition when making comparisons of relative likelihood. In addition, we discuss how our findings impact models established in the research literature (e.g., the representativeness heuristic) and, further, we suggest that logical fallacies should supplement heuristic and informal reasoning as potential perspectives for research investigating comparisons of relative likelihood.