The Factors Affecting Exports of Gum Talha after changing the Gum Arabic Specifications in 1998 Using ARDL Model

Abstract

This research aimed to identify the most important factors affecting the exports of gum Talha after changes in gum arabic specifications in 1998. Secondary data covered the period 1999-2018 was used. A co-integration analysis is performed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach. The study demonstrated the significant long-run relationship between exports of gum Talha and gum Talha FOB with an elasticity of (-1.67), gum Hashab’s FOB with an elasticity of (1.33) and lagged exports of gum Hashab with an elasticity of (1.34). Also, it demonstrated the significant short-run relationship between exports of gum Talha and gum Talha FOB (-0.96), gum Hashab FOB (.75), lagged exports of gum Hashab (0.14) and abolishment of monopoly using dummy variables (1.81). The demand for gum Talha export and Hashab gum FOB price indicated cross elasticity which was significantly elastic in the long run but insignificantly inelastic in the short run. The study concluded that there is an increase in the global demand for Sudan gum Talha but gum Talha and gum Hashab are not alternative export commodities.