The extent, drivers and production loss of farmland abandonment in China: Evidence from a spatiotemporal analysis of farm households survey

Abstract

The uncertainty of the global food supply has increased, and land abandonment has affected food security. Based on nationally representative farm households in 1995, 2002, 2008 and 2020, this paper systematically reveals the extent, drivers, and production loss of farmland abandonment in China, providing a scientific basis for the comprehensive management of land abandonment. The extent of farmland abandonment has been increasing since 1995; 1/5 of farmers have abandoned their farmland, and 1/10 of farmland has been abandoned. The number of counties recording farmland abandonment increased from 34 (11.15%) at the beginning of the study period to 224 (73.44%) by the end, and these counties were mainly distributed in the hilly and mountainous areas along the Yangtze River as well as in Southeast, Southwest, Northwest, and Northeast China. Farmland abandonment is the result of a combination of multiple factors, including basic farmland conditions and socio-economic and ecological factors, among which the low agricultural comparative income caused by agricultural labour shortages and poor-quality farmland conditions is the root cause. In 2020, for example, the ratio of farmland abandonment in major grain-producing and non-grain-producing regions was 7.38% and 16.94%, respectively, resulting in a total loss of 49.23 million tons of grain, which is 7.36% of the total national grain output. The production loss experienced by China could feed 123 million people based on the per capita annual food consumption estimates of 400 kg. Currently, farmland abandonment poses a threat to China's food security, and the government should gradually improve the quality of farmland through comprehensive land management, improve rural infrastructure and develop small-scale machinery suitable for hilly and mountainous areas.