The expected speed and impacts of vehicle automation in passenger and freight transport: A Dissensus Delphi study among UK professionals

Abstract

Vehicle automation is one of the most researched topics in transport studies but much remains uncertain about the speed of adoption and potential impacts, including if and how it can contribute to greater environmental sustainability. This study adopts a Delphi approach to examine the speed with which 15% of new vehicles will be automated (SAE-3, SAE-4 or SAE-5) and what impacts automation may have on motility, mobility, resource use and externalities in both passenger and freight transport. Although challenges with recruitment mean that all findings must be caveated and seen as exploratory, the analysis demonstrates considerable dissensus regarding the expected speed and impacts of vehicle automation in both passenger and freight transport among the participants. For both aspects, a diversity of views remains once participants were informed about the expectations of other panellists. The range of views is organised around the axes of optimism and certainty about what may happen. Considerable differences between passenger and freight transport can be identified for potential impacts of vehicle automation but not for speed of adoption.