The expansion of renewable energy in Brazil: opportunities and barriers within the context of energy transition and climate change mitigation

Abstract

Due to the intense emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the production and consumption of energy related to the global energy matrix, analyzing climate change mitigation measures, such as using renewable energy sources, becomes essential in combating such changes. In the specific case of Brazil, this is very relevant given the growing participation of fossil sources (to generate electricity in thermoelectric plants), in the country, in the last decade. In this context, this work aims to establish, characterize and analyze the relationships between the likely impacts of climate change in the context of renewable energy sources vis-à-vis the country’s NDCs under the Paris Agreement. The methodology was based on a systematic literature review, analysis of primary data on the Brazilian energy system, and interviews with stakeholders. It was possible to conclude that hydroelectric plants and those based on solar and wind energy tend to register a reduction in their electricity generation potential in Brazil; however, the last two can still be used on a large scale until at least the end of the current 21st century. In contrast, electricity generation based on biofuels should be the renewable source potentially least affected by climate change.