The Expanding Physician Supply and Health Policy: The Clouded Outlook

Abstract

Our conclusions about consensus and policy follow: -The interested parties from the citizenry to the leaders of specialty societies are definitely not of one mind whether the increasing number of physicians is to be viewed as boon or bane. -If over the next few years the much enlarged supply of physicians is seen as creating more problems than it is solving, the step from consensus to policy will still prove difficult. -The absence of early consensus or specific action does not imply that the future supply of physicians is not being influences. The cutbacks in federal support for medical students are certain to have a dampening effect sooner or later on the numbers that will seek admission to medical school. -The marker signals that physicians' incomes are lagging behind other professionals and that government is increasing its control over medical practice will also have an effect on many premedical students, some of whom will choose other careers. -The changes in payment mechanisms and the delivery of heath care will have important long-term consequences for the effective demand for physician services, which in turn will influence future medical school enrollments.