The expanding distribution of the Indian Peafowl (Pavo cristatus) as an indicator of changing climate in Kerala, southern India: A modelling study using MaxEnt

Abstract

Abstract Avian species can be regarded as a bioindicator of environmental change. However, limited analysis are available on the effect of climate change on the distribution of birds in India. During recent years the distribution of the Indian Peafowl, (Pavo cristatus), a dryland species was observed to be expanding in Kerala, southern India, a region falling under the humid tropics. A study was conducted to understand the reasons for this expanding distribution, the influence of climatic variables and the future extent of distribution using MaxEnt. A Mean ensemble of five CMIP5 models were used to predict the potential distribution for the period 2050s (2041–2060) and 2070s (2061–2080) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The study identified that seasonality of temperature and precipitation during the driest quarter will be the major factors which determine the distribution of P. cristatus. The model showed that in current conditions 19.15% of the study area provides a suitable habitat for P. cristatus, whilst future predictions suggest that there may be a range expansion of 41.44% and 55.33% during the 2050s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In the 2070s, area of habitat range may decline to 22.09% and 32.22% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Comparison of various RCP scenarios showed high habitat suitability under RCP 8.5. Central Kerala is found to be the hotspot for the Indian Peafowl population expansion and the distribution may be prominent towards southeast and northwest during the 2050s and 2070s respectively. The study reveals that the Indian Peafowl acts as a bioindicator of the changing climate in Kerala.