Abstract
An exceptionally cold episode occurred in January 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula. Analysis of historical records showed that it was one of the coldest extreme episodes. Even though the low temperatures of January 2017 did not break previous low records for all stations, the long duration was quite extreme, resulting in strong socioeconomic impacts in the region of interest. The 10-year to 100-year return values of minimum temperatures were calculated based on block maxima method and the maximum likelihood estimates. The estimated return periods of the absolute minimum temperature are approximately 15 or 20 years for almost all stations. For only one station, the absolute minimum temperature of January 2017 might happen once in every 300 years according to the return level results. Moreover, the extreme cold episode over the Balkans during the period of 5 January 2017 to 12 January 2017 was associated with a significant outbreak of arctic air masses into eastern–central Europe and the Balkans and a cutoff low at the level of 500 hPa over the region.
Highlights
Southeastern European, and especially Balkan winters, are characterized by strong temperature variability
This association of northerly air outbreaks of polar air was frequent during significantly cold periods in the past [13,14] Hurrell [15] associated the occurrence of low temperatures with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index and Brown et al [16] documented that the negative NAO phase significantly reduces extreme winter daily temperatures over Eurasia
The aim of this study is to examine this unusually cold episode of January 2017 over the Balkan
Summary
Southeastern European, and especially Balkan winters, are characterized by strong temperature variability. But occasionally the large-scale atmospheric circulation changes, resulting in colder conditions with northern flow from Scandinavia (December 1953, January 2012) [1,2] or northeasterly flow from Siberia (Winter 1956, 1963) [3] These quasi-stationary larger scale circulation patterns are often referred to as “weather regimes” and can persist a few days or even a few weeks [4,5]. These anomalous cold winter temperatures are associated with atmospheric blocking over the Atlantic or Europe [6,7,8]. For southern Europe, the index’s influence to temperature variability is more complex, since the temperature conditions are related to the NAO phase and to the exact geographical position of its poles [17]
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