Abstract

From solar lanterns to home systems and minigrids, distributed renewable energy (DRE) has become increasingly competitive as an alternative to grid extension in household electrification across many parts of the emerging world. We explore how DRE use in Indian households has evolved against the backdrop of massive public investment in grid extension. Using two rounds of the 2015–2018 ACCESS household data from six Indian states, we estimate the impact of household electrification via grid extension on DRE ownership and use. We find that demand for solar microgrids and minigrids has all but disappeared, whereas demand for solar home systems and lanterns as backup solutions to intermittent grid electricity supply continues to grow. Most notably, while grid electrification has increased from 66% to 85%, solar lantern ownership has grown from 1.2% to 5%. The use of DRE as a backup solution to government electrification schemes seems driven by changes in quality of electricity supply. These analyses confirm that intermittent grid electricity supply is key to understanding the solar lantern's continued popularity. The results show that where population density, household income, and government commitment all favor grid extension, the most affordable DRE technologies can still play an important role. These lessons offer insights into the development of solar-based lighting markets in other regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, where grid extension continues but grid electricity remains intermittent in supply.

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