Abstract
Scots pine is one of the most widely occurring pines, but future projections suggest a large reduction in its range, mostly at the southern European limits. A significant part of its range is located in the Caucasus, a global hot-spot of diversity. Pine forests are an important reservoir of biodiversity and endemism in this region. We explored demographic and biogeographical processes that shaped the genetic diversity of Scots pine in the Caucasus ecoregion and its probable future distribution under different climate scenarios. We found that the high genetic variability of the Caucasian populations mirrors a complex glacial and postglacial history that had a unique evolutionary trajectory compared to the main range in Europe. Scots pine currently grows under a broad spectrum of climatic conditions in the Caucasus, which implies high adaptive potential in the past. However, the current genetic resources of Scots pine are under high pressure from climate change. From our predictions, over 90% of the current distribution of Scots pine may be lost in this century. By threatening the stability of the forest ecosystems, this would dramatically affect the biodiversity of the Caucasus hot-spot.
Highlights
Scots pine is one of the most widely occurring pines, but future projections suggest a large reduction in its range, mostly at the southern European limits
The highest average number of alleles was noted in population WA_02 from the West Anatolia (8.31) and lowest in GC_07 from the Greater Caucasus (5.23)
Our study revealed that the South Caucasian populations of Scots pine share the mitotype d dominating in Anatolia[23], and populations from both regions may be of common origin
Summary
Scots pine is one of the most widely occurring pines, but future projections suggest a large reduction in its range, mostly at the southern European limits. By the end of 2080, approximately one-third of the current distribution of Scots pine in Europe might be lost, with southern stands being most affected[5,6] If this decline happens, it will greatly impoverish the genetic, phylogeographic and phylogenetic diversity of Scots pine, that may affect adaptive potential of the species. The ’central-marginal’, ’southern richness and northern purity’ or ’leading-edge vs rear-edge’ hypotheses exemplify the attempts to conceptualize the observed spatial organization and determinants of genetic diversity by drawing attention to species’ ecology and evolution[7–9] All these models predict a distinct genetic composition of peripheral populations, which evolve to be characterized by either a low genetic diversity and adaptability or unique DNA polymorphisms that might be crucial/valuable in future a daptation[10,11]. Studies indicated that peripheral populations may have both high n eutral[13] and adaptive genetic v ariation[11] In this light, the isolated populations of tree species at the southern edge of their geographic range, such as those of Scots pine, are of particular interest[8,14,15]
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