The Evolution of the Russian Elites' Perceptions of National Interests, 2012-2016

Abstract

Since the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, Russian-Western relations have experienced rapid decline, with piling ideological resentments, new Cold War rhetoric streaming from both sides, increasing geopolitical confrontation, and greater potential risks associated with future military escalation. The West's growing anxiety over Russia's revised geopolitical ambitions to redraw spheres of influence, on the one hand, and Russia's retaliatory policies, on the other, exacerbate the importance of the study of factors affecting the perception of national interests by Russian elites. This paper offers a conceptual model which links the effects of national identity on the perception of the scope of national interests. The concept of national identity here is composed of such factors as Patriotism, Nationalism, External and Internal Other, and the Soviet past. The conceptual model is tested using the Bayesian Structural Equation Model by drawing the data from the Russian Foreign Policy Elite Perspectives, 2008-2016.