Abstract
This paper provides the concept of import dependence between countries, which is a relative quantity. In order to reveal the evolutionary characteristics of the import dependence between countries in energy trade and its influencing factors, firstly, based on the network analysis method, this paper constructs a model of energy import dependence network (EIDN) among countries and regions along the Belt and Road (B&R countries). Crude oil and natural gas are taken as empirical objects, and the evolution characteristics of the two kinds of EIDNs are analysed. The result showed that most of the B&R countries had a small number of crude oil and natural gas trade partners. However, the import dependence in crude oil and natural gas trade between countries is relatively large, indicating that the risk of oil and gas security in B&R countries is high. Moreover, based on the QAP method, spatial distance, economic differences, the signing of free trade agreements, and the differences in energy consumption between countries have a significant impact on the import dependence in crude oil and natural gas trade among B&R countries.
Highlights
Energy, especially crude oil and natural gas, acts as a driving factor of economic development
To better understand the results, this study provides the crude oil and natural gas production, consumption, exports and imports of B&R countries and calculates the net imports of each country to judge whether the country is a net importing country or not; please see Appendix, Tables A2 and A3
The number of B&R countries participating in energy trade is analysed
Summary
Especially crude oil and natural gas, acts as a driving factor of economic development. The economic magnitude of a country has a positive influence on the country’s energy trade quantities (Matthee & Santana-Gallego, 2017; Zhang et al, 2018) They focused on the determinants of a country’s trade volume and ignored the determinants of trade relationships (import dependence relationships) among countries. While the crude oil and natural gas resources in some B&R countries, such as China and Turkey, are scarce, and these countries need importing lots of energy to support their economic development. The crude oil and natural gas trade among B&R countries are taken as an empirical object, and the evolution of the oil and gas import dependence pattern and its influencing factors are analyzed. The last Section contains the main conclusions and policy implications
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