The Evolution of Educational Expectations in Spain (2003-2018): An Analysis of Social Inequality Using PISA

Manuel Tomás Valdés

doi:10.17583/rise.2020.6413

Abstract

This paper examines the educational expectations of the Spanish student body at the end of compulsory education. Using the 2003 and 2018 waves of PISA, I report a remarkable increase in the educational ambition of the Spanish student body. Two aspects are worth noting. Firstly, virtually all 15-years-old students expect to enroll in Upper Secondary Education by 2018. Secondly, Higher Vocational Education has become a very appealing alternative at tertiary level. Furthermore, significant inequalities have been documented in the configuration of educational expectations. However, inequality has been reduced in the expectations of enrolment in Upper Secondary and Tertiary Education due to the higher educational ambition among socioeconomically disadvantaged students. In turn, inequality has increased in the horizontal expectation of enrolment in the academic track in both levels because a larger share of socioeconomically disadvantaged students preferred the vocational track in 2018 (diversion thesis). Using counterfactual analysis, I have observed that this increase in horizontal inequality would have been larger had it not been for the change in the social structure between 2003 and 2018

Highlights

This paper examines the educational expectations of the Spanish student body at the end of compulsory education
For the sake of transparency, I present in the Appendix the raw educational expectations as they were answered in Programme for the International Student Assessment (PISA)
Results clearly report a significant rise in the vertical expectations of transition into Upper Secondary and Tertiary Education between 2003 and 2018 among disadvantaged students, which meant a notable decrease in the inequality observed in both expectations

Summary

Introduction

This paper examines the educational expectations of the Spanish student body at the end of compulsory education. Inequality has been reduced in the expectations of enrolment in Upper Secondary and Tertiary Education due to the higher educational ambition among socioeconomically disadvantaged students. Inequality has increased in the horizontal expectation of enrolment in the academic track in both levels because a larger share of socioeconomically disadvantaged students preferred the vocational track in 2018 (diversion thesis). La desigualdad se ha reducido en las expectativas de matriculación en la Educación Secundaria Superior y Terciaria debido a la mayor ambición formativa de los alumnos de extracción social baja. Se ha podido comprobar que ese incremento de desigualdad horizontal hubiese sido aún mayor de no ser por el cambio en la estructura social entre los años 2003 y 2018. Expectations have been employed as a proxy for the student’s habitus in the analysis of social differentials in educational achievement (Dumais 2006; Grodsky & Riegle-Crumb 2010; Roksa and Potter 2011; Roksa and Robinson 2017)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion