The Evolution of Ecological Space in an Urban Agglomeration Based on a Suitability Evaluation and Cellular Automata Simulation

Abstract

Changing and reconstructing the ecological space of urban agglomerations is inevitable for ecological conservation and a scientific problem that needs urgent attention from geography, ecology, and urban and rural planning. Using ArcGIS and other software for data processing, this study established a spatial attribute database, constructed a land use conversion matrix of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan (CZX) urban agglomeration’s ecological space, and quantitatively analyzed the main changes in ecological land. Using a trained cellular automata model with predicted land use in 2035 as the threshold value, the simulation research was presented by creating two simulation scenarios for the spatial distribution of land use by 2035 in the “Green Heart” area of the CZX urban agglomeration. The simulation results were compared, and the constraining role of land use suitability evaluation on ecological space evolution was analyzed. This study found that the total area of ecological space in the Green Heart area saw a rapid reduction, and it predicted that, by 2035, the total area of the CZX Green Heart area will have decreased. Comparing the two simulation scenarios proved the hypothesis that zoning ecological space reconstruction based on a land suitability evaluation can effectively protect ecological space and ensure ecological network functions are harnessed.