Abstract
Why do people sometimes hold unjustified beliefs and make harmful choices? Three hypotheses include (a) contemporary incentives in which some errors cost more than others, (b) cognitive biases evolved to manage ancestral incentives with variation in error costs and (c) social learning based on choice frequencies. With both modelling and a behavioural experiment, we examined all three mechanisms. The model and experiment support the conclusion that contemporary cost asymmetries affect choices by increasing the rate of cheap errors to reduce the rate of expensive errors. Our model shows that a cognitive bias can distort the evolution of beliefs and in turn behaviour. Unless the bias is strong, however, beliefs often evolve in the correct direction. This suggests limitations on how cognitive biases shape choices, which further indicates that detecting the behavioural consequences of biased cognition may sometimes be challenging. Our experiment used a prime intended to activate a bias called 'hyperactive agency detection', and the prime had no detectable effect on choices. Finally, both the model and experiment show that frequency-dependent social learning can generate choice dynamics in which some populations converge on widespread errors, but this outcome hinges on the other two mechanisms being neutral with respect to choice.
Highlights
In early modern Europe, Christian zealots put thousands of innocent people to death because these innocents were seen to be agents of Satan (Boyer, 2001)
The tendency for cognitive biases and explicit cost asymmetries to support errors, in contrast, hinges on the environment being in the opposite state, and this is why we focus on cases in which the actual state is 0
Asymmetric costs decreased homogeneity within groups, and social information, given asymmetric costs, increased homogeneity within groups. Both our model and experiment indicate that asymmetries in the explicit incentive structure can exert a powerful effect on choices
Summary
In early modern Europe, Christian zealots put thousands of innocent people to death because these innocents were seen to be agents of Satan (Boyer, 2001). In parts of Asia and Africa, ‘penis panics’ have occurred repeatedly. These outbreaks of paranoia centred on the belief that one’s genitals were receding into one’s body or had been stolen. People resorted to self-destructive measures to protect themselves, and they arbitrarily accused others of genital thievery (Yap, 1965; Sachdev, 1985; Ilechukwu, 1992; Cheng, 1996; Buckle et al, 2007; Bures, 2008). In 2003, the United States justified its invasion of Iraq by arguing that the Iraqi government was manufacturing weapons of mass destruction. In the wake of the invasion, the evidence overwhelmingly indicated that Iraq did not have such weapons, but many US citizens maintained the opposite belief (Gaines et al, 2007)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
