Abstract
Climate changes are a phenomenon that can affect the daily activities of rural communities, with particular emphasis on those directly dependent on the agricultural and forestry sectors. In this way, the present work intends to analyse the impact that climate changes have on forest risk assessment, namely on how the occurrence of rural fires are affecting the management of the forest areas and how the occurrence of these fires has evolved in the near past. Thus, a comparative analysis of the data provided by IPMA (Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere), was carried out for the period from 2001 to 2017 with the climatic normal for the period between 1971 to 2000, for the variables of the average air temperature, and for the precipitation. In this comparative study, the average monthly values were considered and the months in which anomalies occurred were determined. Anomalies were considered in the months in which the average air temperature varied by 1 °C than the value corresponding to the climatic norm, in at least 50% of the national territory. The same procedure was repeated for the variable precipitation, counting as anomaly the occurrence of a variation in precipitation of 50%, also in 50% of the national territory. Then the calculation of the moving averages for cycles of 3, 5 and 7 periods were applied, and the trend lines were projected. Subsequently, the relationship between the results obtained and the occurrence of rural fires as well as the spatial distribution of forest area, species and structure were analyzed. From the results obtained it was possible to confirm the existence of a tendency for the occurrence of climatic anomalies, highlighting the occurrence of an increasing number of months with temperatures higher by at least 1 °C. It was possible to foresee the relation between the occurrence of rural fires and the periods of anomaly and absence of precipitation. From the results obtained it is also possible to infer that, analyzing the tendency for these phenomena to occur, it can be necessary to change the “critical period of rural fires”, since it is verified that what is currently in use does not covers the entire period where anomalies occur and where large-scale rural fires potentially can happen.
Highlights
The study of the climate is a complex field of investigation presently in great evolution, mainly due to the number of factors that can intervene in it, such as temperature, precipitation, sea currents and solar radiation, among others
It is necessary to contemplate what the forests can bring to the reduction of this problem, being a path to mitigation, and on the other hand, what impact climate changes can have on forests, analyzing their adaptation and evolution [17]
According to the opinion of several authors [32,33,34], with temperatures rising as the climate changes and warms, insects will become more active, and more ravenous and abundant, increasing the likelihood of occurrence of insect pests
Summary
The study of the climate is a complex field of investigation presently in great evolution, mainly due to the number of factors that can intervene in it, such as temperature, precipitation, sea currents and solar radiation, among others. It is necessary to contemplate what the forests can bring to the reduction of this problem, being a path to mitigation, and on the other hand, what impact climate changes can have on forests, analyzing their adaptation and evolution [17] These interactions are not independent and are affected by complex interconnection and cause-effect processes. The importance of forests to mitigate CO2 concentrations can be affected if the impact of climate changes reduce their storage capacity through growth and development constraints, or increases the problem of rural fires. Following sections deal with the evolution of the climate in Portugal, with the objective of understanding how these variations can influence the development of the forest In this way, an analysis of the current state and the development of the climate in the last years is presented, both in terms of the evolution of the average air temperature and precipitation evolution. An analysis is made of the impacts of climate changes and its consequences on Portuguese forests, in particular due to the increase in the occurrence of rural fires, pests and occurrence of forest invasive species
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