The evolution of China's rural depopulation pattern and its influencing factors from 2000 to 2020

Abstract

Rural depopulation is rapidly becoming a worldwide phenomenon, affecting both developed and developing countries, such as China, alike. China's rural population has been on an increasingly significant downward trend in recent years, and while this massive population influx into urban centers has provided an abundant labor force, it has also exacerbated a number of existing problems at both urban and rural level. This study utilizes national population census data to analyze changes in China's rural population over the years 2000–2020, and to assess changes in associated characteristics and influencing factors. The spatiotemporal characteristics, spatial autocorrelation characteristics, and factors influencing rural population change were all analyzed in detail. The results obtained demonstrate that while China's rural population declined as a whole from 2000 to 2020, the decline was more significant from 2010 to 2020. From a spatial perspective, as compared to China's other two economic regions (eastern and western), the greatest decline occurred in China's central region. Significant differences were also observed in the changes that occurred to China's rural population among urban agglomerations and peripheral areas. From a national perspective, rural depopulation was positively affected by economic growth and urbanization processes, with spatial differences also notable among the influencing factors.