The evolution model of electricity market on the stable development in China and its dynamic analysis

Abstract

According to the causal relationships between electricity consumption, electricity supply and electricity price, the complex interrelationships among all the factors in electricity market are clarified, and a net structure that every element can conduct mutually are founded. Furthermore, a novel dynamic system model of the electricity supply-consumption-price is proposed. By means of Lyapunov exponents and bifurcation diagrams, the dynamic behaviors of the system are analyzed, and an electricity market attractor is achieved. Then the model is applied to China's electricity market. With the statistical data of China between 1997 and 2012, the parameters for establishing a China-specific dynamic system of electricity market are identified by artificial neural network of machine learning. Owing to the actual system in China's electricity market is unstable, four efficient single regulatory strategies have been found by means of bifurcation diagrams. And comparative scenario analysis is employed based on the influences to electricity market and electricity balance index under all kinds of regulatory strength and regulatory strategies. The results show that the current actual situation in China's electricity market should be considered, and excessive regulation should be avoided. At the same time, it is found that the integrated regulatory strategies are better than the single regulatory strategies, and the optimal regulatory strategy of the integrated regulatory strategies is strategy-2,3,4. That is, to reform the regulation of China's current electricity market, the best way is to deepen market-oriented reforms in the electricity generation side, implementing peak-valley TOU price and adopting appropriate administrative measures.