The Everglades vulnerability analysis: Linking ecological models to support ecosystem restoration

Abstract

Understanding of the Everglades’ ecological vulnerabilities and restoration needs has advanced over the past decade but has not been applied in an integrated manner. To address this need, we developed the Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA), a decision support tool that uses modular Bayesian networks to predict the ecological outcomes of a subset of the ecosystem’s health indicators. This tool takes advantage of the extensive modeling work already done in the Everglades and synthesizes information across indicators of ecosystem health to forecast long-term, landscape-scale changes. In addition, the tool can predict indicator vulnerability through comparison to user-defined ideal system states that can vary in the level of certainty of outcomes. An integrated understanding of the Everglades system is essential for evaluation of trade-offs at local, regional, and system-wide scales. Through EVA, Everglades restoration decision makers can provide effective guidance during restoration planning and implementation processes to mitigate unintended consequences that could result in further damage to the Everglades system.