The evaluation on artificial neural networks (ANN) and multiple linear regressions (MLR) models for predicting SO2 concentration

Abstract

Nowadays air quality is the main issue in urban areas that have been affecting human health, the environment, and the ecosystem. So, governmental authorities, environmental and health agencies usually need the prediction of daily air pollutants. This prediction is often based on statistical relations between various conditions and air pollution. This study aims to compare the performance of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for predicting SO2 concentration in the air of the Tehran. Different parameters namely meteorological parameters, urban traffic data, urban green space information, and time parameters were chosen for the prediction of SO2 daily concentration. Considering result, the correlation coefficient (R2), and root means square error (RMSE) of the MLR model are 0.708, and 6.025, respectively while these values for the MLP equal 0.9 and 0.42. According to the result of sensitivity analysis, the value of the one-day time delay, park indicator, season/year, and the total area parks were the main factors influencing SO2 concentration. MLP model suggested in this research could be applied to support, analysis, and improve predicting air pollution and air quality management. This study shows the importance of modeling and application of ANN in presenting management strategies to reduce urban pollution.