The Evaluation of Unpredicted Short-Macroeconomic-Shocks Originated from Cyclical COVID-19 Waves

Abstract

This research evaluates how often COVID-19 waves can generate unpredicted short-macroeconomic-shocks anytime in the short run. The constant accumulation of unpredicted short-macroeconomic-shocks in the long run, it can cause an enormous negative impact on the annual GDP performance directly. We argue that each unpredicted short-macroeconomic-shock is highly costly and painful each time happens for any economy. This research debates about how COVID-19 waves directly are connected to the temperature levels consistency. On the other hand, this research attempts to introduce a new concept entitled "The Monitoring of Unpredicted short-macroeconomic-shocks." This new concept involves how an increment of COVID-19 infected cases in a specific zone can immediately force closed businesses in restaurants, large shopping malls, popular markets, or any public plaza, respectively. To closed shops in different zones or districts, it can generate a possible increment of unemployment and inflation immediately in the same zone or district, lastly, at the national economy level. This research supports that unpredicted short-macroeconomic-shocks often make any economy an easy hunting prey of a possible economic depression. Finally, we like to remark that the government and the private sector's role needs to join efforts to create emergency contention financial programs to reduce the damage in each unpredicted short-macroeconomic shock just on time.